Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 5.093378 5.981246 6.962160 8.124030 9.460352 10.946788 12.723015
2025-08-03 3.654713 4.827703 6.264176 8.142343 10.521658 13.422806 17.214083
2025-08-10 2.654806 3.883681 5.527592 7.863825 11.070250 15.283830 21.200581
2025-08-17 1.967219 3.151143 4.863010 7.478296 11.322116 16.702369 24.723471
2025-08-24 1.557756 2.704500 4.480004 7.368387 11.870344 18.518013 28.939046
2025-08-31 1.266142 2.366455 4.179281 7.299584 12.423425 20.353650 33.341442
2025-09-07 1.107543 2.210069 4.128744 7.597862 13.556994 23.158846 39.480148
2025-09-14 0.941778 2.002733 3.949214 7.638227 14.251522 25.318450 44.794910
2025-09-21 0.805842 1.821030 3.779245 7.658485 14.895309 27.437473 50.226743
2025-09-28 0.693839 1.662255 3.621800 7.669901 15.509675 29.548358 55.824257
2025-10-05 0.667570 1.678419 3.805798 8.353468 17.431675 34.121445 66.109710
2025-10-12 0.604881 1.600466 3.784114 8.621802 18.587530 37.413461 74.387044
2025-10-19 0.551169 1.535478 3.785795 8.951846 19.930705 41.232802 84.082113
2025-10-26 0.480785 1.415040 3.646829 8.965849 20.643830 43.941184 91.977832
2025-11-02 0.401175 1.251975 3.381197 8.659587 20.649128 45.268501 97.345514
2025-11-09 0.328777 1.089676 3.086448 8.237798 20.345538 45.935085 101.457988
2025-11-16 0.282887 0.990740 2.930281 8.117479 20.689187 47.952043 108.456723
2025-11-23 0.245775 0.908313 2.801230 8.042224 21.122291 50.190507 116.096692
2025-11-30 0.228912 0.885504 2.828816 8.367992 22.534484 54.663406 128.809377
2025-12-07 0.204064 0.829692 2.753607 8.412062 23.268275 57.700713 138.673146
2025-12-14 0.181647 0.776119 2.674848 8.434180 23.948670 60.675646 148.638287
2025-12-21 0.161745 0.726010 2.596989 8.446645 24.604708 63.650170 158.837932
2025-12-28 0.162431 0.754238 2.767435 9.192873 27.245749 71.480334 180.613628